Myanmar generals not ready for talks: mediator (AFP)

Khaleej Times Online

Myanmar generals not ready for talks: mediator (AFP)

3 October 2007

BANGKOK - Myanmar’s crisis is far from over because its ruling junta is not ready for real talks despite fierce international pressure to do so, says a former mediator who helped broker landmark contacts with the opposition.

Leon de Riedmatten, who as an informal mediator for the United Nations was involved in contacts in 2003 between the junta and democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, warned that the military government still faced major discontent.

De Riedmatten said he hoped something positive would come from UN special envoy Ibrahim Gambari’s mission to the country following the bloody crackdown on mass protests.

“But we must also be very realistic about the situation,” said the Swiss, who represents the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue, a Geneva-based foundation that works to reduce conflict through negotiation.

Myanmar’s generals have “never negotiated anything, they always impose their position and their will, and I do not believe that has changed today,” he told AFP in an interview.

Gambari spent four days in Myanmar, leaving late Tuesday, during which he had talks with junta supremo Senior General Than Shwe and twice with Aung San Suu Kyi.

De Riedmatten, 55, said Gambari’s shuttle diplomacy between the generals’ headquarters in the remotal capital of Naypyidaw, and the main city of Yangon where she is under house arrest, possibly allowed an “exchange of views.”

“But it is difficult at this stage to believe that it can be the beginning of a new dialogue,” said the Myanmar-watcher who has had more contact with the opposition leader than any other foreigner in recent years.

The junta would want to portray Gambari’s visit as positive and show it is ready to redefine its “roadmap to democracy,” which has been criticised as a stalling tactic, he said.

“But it is premature to draw conclusions,” he added, saying the focus now would be Gambari who will brief UN chief Ban Ki-moon and the Security Council in New York of his findings.

“It is only afterwards that we’ll be able to measure the effects of this visit,” he said.

De Riedmatten said that only once, between the end of 2003 and the start of 2004, did he feel that an outline of a dialogue was emerging between the junta and Aung San Suu Kyi.

That was until Than Shwe “decided not to let this process continue.”

He said Aung San Suu Kyi’s detention — she has been confined to her Yangon home for most of the past 18 years — was only a secondary issue.

“The main point should be that a genuine dialogue is established between her and the generals so that this country move ahead, so that reforms can be implemented with regards to the society, economy and politics.

“Her release is secondary and this is what she has always said herself. In May 2002, three days before a release, she told me she did not wish to be freed if it was not related to the start of a dialogue with the regime.

“I think her opinion has not changed today.”

As rumours of a split in the regime emerge, de Riedmatten said he did not rule out changes happening within the junta as a result of the crackdown.

“Other people may be given new responsibilities and might think differently to General Than Shwe” about the eventual release of Aung San Suu Kyi.

“Eve! rything is possible, the crisis is not over,” he added, despite the government’s apparently successful campaign to suppress the mass rallies which erupted last month, led by Buddhist monks.

The protests were triggered by fuel price hikes in August, but escalated when thousands of monks joined the movement. During the crackdown, monks were beaten and arrested, causing outrage in Myanmar and abroad.

“There is still strong dissatisfaction because of the economic situation and the generals’ unforgivable stance toward the monks,” de Riedmatten said.

The regime and its agents “continue to create terror, and at any time the population could again seize the initiative and restart the protests. How could anyone think that the problem is solved?”