Myanmar junta's last gasp?

Jakarta Post - October 04, 2007

Opinion

Myanmar junta's last gasp?

M. Taufiqurrahman, De Kalb, Chicago

Much has been said about how little the international community has done to stop the brutality of the Myanmarese military junta that continues to harass democracy.

Indeed, China, India, ASEAN as well as the U.S. could have played a role in mitigating the plight of the Myanmarese people. But at the end of the day, the regime itself remains free to decide how long it is willing to carry out its repression.

Earlier this week, we were again painfully reminded of the military junta's brutality when it cracked down on a massive public protest led by hundreds of Buddhist monks, following a fuel price increase.

It seems that after the failure of the pro-democratic movements, the task of leading Myanmar to democracy must fall into the hands of the monks, who hold a venerated position in the highly devout Buddhist society.

Yet, in spite of the highly respected position of the monks, the military junta -- which has ruled since 1962 -- was hardly inhibited and the crackdown has been ruthless, akin to what was done in 1988, when more than 3,000 protesters were shot down in cold blood.

According to reports, monasteries were raided, three monks killed, dozens physically abused, hundreds more arrested and confined.

It seems that the monks' threat to excommunicate the military and their families (the monks announced they would refuse alms from them) fell on deaf ears in the belligerent military junta.

The pressing question then, is why the military regime embarked on a crackdown against Buddhist monks, Myanmar's moral compass, akin to kyais in Indonesia.

An even bigger question is why, when ruthless military rule is considered a thing of the past, the military government still resorts to abject violence to crush opposition and shuts itself off from the outside world.

The answer lies probably in the nature of the military junta itself.

At the risk of oversimplification, the Myanmarese military (Tatmadaw), which comprises the junta, does not consist of politicians in military garb; they are first and foremost military men who now find themselves running a country.

From the inception of Myanmar as a nation-state, the junta believed they held a superior position vis-a-vis civilians, a worldview that likely plagues many military dictatorships.

Moreover, the legacy of colonialism has deeply ingrained in the thinking of the military the idea that the general population is the enemy and has to be pacified. In the context of serious separatism problems and rampant banditry, as well as the advent of the Cold War in the early 1950s, this has given rise to a deep-seated paranoia among members of the junta.

This paranoia apparently still exists. Otherwise, what can explain the decision of the military government -- known as the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) -- to transfer the country's capital to Pyinmana township, 400 kilometers north of Yangon? (Other explanations include an effort to isolate civil servants from the general public or -- more preposterously -- astrology-related motivations. )

The perception of ever-impending dangers that threaten to engulf the country has given the army a much-needed justification to view themselves as the only actor that can hold the country together.

The junta also believes that it is the only agent that is capable of carrying out the task of social engineering and that civilians can not be depended on to run the country.

Twice in the 1950s and the 1960s the tatmadaw launched a coup against civilian governments they saw as incompetent. The junta's annulment of the 1990 victory of Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) was a replay.

After holding on, despite this disturbing mindset, for over four decades, we may now be witnessing the endgame -- the last gasp of a regime that's sinking fast to the bottom.

In recent years the military regime has resorted to measures characteristic of despotic rulers approaching their demise.

Last year, the regime finished drafting a new constitution --after 13 years -- that gives the military a tighter control over politics. The new constitution decrees that the commander-in- chief of the Tatmadaw is equivalent to the vice president. The commander-in- chief also controls 25 percent of both houses of parliament and has the authority to appoint three key portfolios: defense, home affairs and border affairs.

The tightening grip reminds us of efforts by former president Soeharto on the eve of the reformasi movement to include his family members in cabinet shuffles and promote his kin and aides to strategic positions in the military.

Last May the junta held a re-shuffle and promotion within the Tatmadaw aimed at ensuring institutional continuity in the military.

Coupled with junta efforts to bribe civil servants by increasing their salaries, this was probably aimed at buying time ahead of an escape plan (family members of some junta leaders are rumored to be fleeing abroad in the wake of the monks rally).

The end may be nigh for the Myanmarese military regime.

The writer is a Jakarta Post journalist currently on a Fulbright scholarship at Northern Illinois University, De Kalb, Illinois, studying Southeast Asian politics. He can be reached at taufiq_rahman@ hotmail.com.

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By :SYCB